Which option do you think the E.U. will opt for? Duh ...

Monday's Newsnight programme put Corbyn's speech into a different light completely. In essence, in my mind, the UK dilemma has actually been resolved and in fact will not depend on the British politicians at all.

As far as I can see, the hard line Brexiteers view point of threatening the EU and telling them its in their interest to give Britain what it wants and saying "if you don't give it to us ... you'll be sorry "- will soon be dead in the water. If business in Britain can support Labour, you can rest assured they will also do so on the continent.

By comparison, can the the viewpoint that Britain will demand a seat on the negotiating board (on the EU side presumably) be considered cherry-picking? I think not. On the contrary, it is my belief that the EU would welcome such a demand. It will strengthen their negotiating position and more to the point, it is not anything like a veto. I see no reason why they would not accept, possibly even welcome such a solution. Irish problem ... SOLVED, Scottish problem ... SOLVED. Immigration problem, needs still some fancy footwork.

All that remains now is extending these rules to the services market. Again, since they have a vested interest in leaving London mainly intact, there is no reason why they wouldn't accept it, especially if they also strip the UK of its EU agencies such as the Chemicals Agency (ECHA) and the Medicines Agency (EMA), which is UK based. The HQ would obviously move back to Europe, but there is no reason not to accept a regional office abroad in the UK. So what are we left with?

In essence, the withdrawal of Britain from the EU will probably be a little cheaper in terms of money crossing the channel, but Britain will have lost any say it has for the future of the EU and definitely its veto. Does this matter? To the EU certainly not, but the British would mind! They went to the market to buy hair but instead got scalped (a Greek saying translated!)

What about Teresa May? Once again she has been handed another get out of jail free card, except this time she will have to gamble a little more than previously. If on Friday she insists on her policy of no customs union, then whether it comes from Anna Soubry, Labour or the amendment from the house of Lords, she will lose. She will lose if Donald Tusk or any other EU official stands up again and calls her an illusionist. Corbyn's speech has effectively won over the Euro sceptics.

So May's choice is this! Do another U-turn (shouldn't be a problem with all the practice she has had!) and support A customs union and lay down an ultimatum, back me or sack me ... or stick with the hard liners and go down with them. The customs unionists will win anyway but under Labour.


© 2018 by The Brexit Lemon Grove. Proudly created with Wix.com