Updated: Jul 29, 2018
We have known since 2016 that Brexit would not be an easy proposition. The Brexiteers would probably claim it is the fault of the EU. They don't want to negotiate with us, would be their chant. While there may be some truth in that statement, it is hardly relevant. The British, based on a number of stated reasons want to withdraw from the EU. They don't seem to care that such a move could seriously damage, possibly even destroy the European dream, and at the same time they want the EU to be generous.
Why should they? Since 2016 the truth about Brexit is beginning to raise its ugly head. There are now, almost inevitably, millions of people that never in a million years could foresee some of the consequences that are emerging. The fishermen that voted Brexit have discovered they were no more than a pawn, and as things stand now, not only didn't they get a better deal for the transition period, they can't even complain about it any more.
Today, I don't believe the Brexit issue is even about the subjects they originally wanted to tackle. The Windrush saga has revealed the lies about immigration. We are now in a period where the British people have softened their opinion on how to treat illegal immigrants. Deport illegals, yes! Regularize those legals without papers, yes!
Just one problem, how can you tell the difference? The problem of Windrush is not confined to the Caribbean islands. We now have cases from Pakistan and India. How can you set targets when you can't even see them? What are the real numbers of illegals? More to the point, how can we guarantee that something similar won't happen to the EU migrants after Brexit? Now that we have debunked immigration, let's look at the trade deal situation.
Apparently, the EU is putting us under pressure. Although most people want some sort of customs arrangement, the EU cost is too high, and now we even have countries like Canada and Australia weighing in and telling us some solutions would not be acceptable to them if they are to give Britain a deal of its own. The Brexiteers would consider a customs union as a sellout and the Irish consider anything else as a recipe, or more like an invitation, to further troubles in the future.
The economy didn't collapse we are told, and yet the latest results are showing that as we get closer and closer to the exit date, the economy is slowing down more and more. Kind of like time in a black hole really. We are now officially lower in growth than even Italy and Greece.
But one thing nobody talks about is the Aircraft industry. Flights between countries are not included in the WTO regulations, and can only take place through mutual agreements between origin and destination. The EU has dozens of such deals. How many does the UK have? Answer: ZILCH.
Ask anybody in the know and almost all agree that it would be unthinkable for Britain to lose such rights. Almost all agree that such a thing would never happen, as it punishes UK and the EU. But ...
In the event of a NO DEAL, how much good will, do you think will be available from the EU side to give the UK a good deal?