Some people call it trial by media, others call it innuendo, I call it stampeding the herd. Sadly people, the buffalo are a large majority of the population who hear a thing or two they like and immediately its the holy light that must be followed. From Brexit to the election of Trump, the whole thing is like a herd that has been stampeded. Ask any cowboy and he will tell you, when that happens it is dangerous and very difficult to bring it back under control without damage or injury. But my blog today isn't about Brexit.
It began in the US with Trump. His campaign promises about bringing China under control and Iran and North Korea all resonated with his base. China proved a problem. They are too strong, Iran is still in the cooking pot but North Korea, no problem. Let's take on Rocket Man. But with his incessant tweeting he has managed to awaken his hawks. Much like May (I'll come to that), his attempt to be popular has caused problems that literally are playing with life and death. He has managed to scare North Korea into coming back to the conference table.
Success for Trump? Look at what's happened now. He has also pressured China into taking a much more active role in denuclearizing the Korean peninsula. So far so good, except China is not in love with the idea of the US playing policeman in its own back yard. Relieving North Korea of its nuclear arsenal also has an up side for China. In the event they convince Kim Jung-Un to disarm, do you really think the technology will just disappear? I'll give odds that it will find its way into the Chinese arsenals before the year is done, not that we will ever know. That doesn't even take into account the second maniac in the US war room, John Bolton.
And then there's Russia. I don't know if the Russians really did try to assassinate Mr. Skripal. The evidence may indeed point in that direction, but the serious lack of motive, not to mention the obvious disincentive is so strong, its downright stupid. And if there's one thing we know it's that Vladimir Putin is nobody's idiot.
Last night there was an interview on CNN. Christiane Amanpour interviewed an ex Russian MP by the name of Sergei Markov. She started off effectively by trying to rub in the fact that Russia has lost so many diplomats, effectively asking him if it was worth it for Putin. His response, I believe scared Amanpour. He started off as might be expected by denying any Russian involvement and accusing May of hiding information by denying Russia the right to examine the toxin. BUT IT DIDN'T END THERE.
H went on to ask, what are you trying to do? You can expect a retaliation of a similar number of diplomats, but also, he reminded Amanpour of the role Colin Powell played in using the security services to convince President Bush to invade Iraq. He implied a question. Do you really think we are the same as Iraq and will just sit back and accept a regime change? He implied that for the next 6 years, strong man Putin is now stronger than ever.
He raised another issue. If troubles in the Eastern Ukraine, emboldened by the West's reaction starts up again, do you really think that Russia will sit by? He brought up the World Cup and implied, do you think Russia will take such an act lying down? Amanpour held up her hands and backed down. I believe she was actually frightened, as would anybody be when faced with one angry bear. A lesson for the BBC political pundits. Think before opening your mouths! Just because you have the right to free-speech, doesn't give you or any serious reporter the right to misuse it.
My prediction, Trump will again interfere on behalf of his friend and things will die down (For once he is doing some good). The EU will back off. The alternative is too horrible to contemplate. Not a cold war, but a real one. And all this so that May can have a few minutes peace in the Brexit war she cannot win.
SIGN OUR PETITION TO GET YOUR VOTE BACK!
Since you are here, perhaps you would consider signing the petition to return the final vote on Brexit to the people. We need a lot of votes, so if you agree help pass the message around. Whatever side of the Brexit fence your on, it can't hurt.
We now know that nobody can negotiate a decent Brexit! It is an impossibility ... and so what I am suggesting is to put the question back to the people in the form of a final vote on the Brexit deal. Not a necessarily a referendum, because many believe that is a binary tool (actually they are wrong) and this is a non-binary problem. What I am proposing is a vote. To be held in Early November latest, with a three-way question.
Accept whatever deal is being proposed and leave in an orderly manner
Reject the deal and simply leave, opting for the NO DEAL option
Accepting that any Brexit is too detrimental, therefore choosing cancelling Brexit
Consider what could happen. If the vote shows a 50% majority for anybody then the question is settled. If you believe in British democracy, just take the winner, but if you are a true democrat then opt for a second round, just like the rest of the civilized world.
Likely it would not and then, just like the elections in many countries, it goes to a second round, with only the top two options going forward. If the two options don't include staying in the EU then the choice will simply be between hard - soft Brexit (or whatever is your preferred nomenclature for the options.)
Most likely, the result will include staying in the EU and one other. If the other is a hard Brexit, then those who voted 'soft' will be obliged to decide in the second round, either 'stay' in the EU or accept crashing out (a 'hard' Brexit). If on the other hand it is the hard Brexiteers that lose out on the first round they will either have to accept an orderly 'soft' Brexit or 'stay' in the EU. In this way nobody can say this is undemocratic or that they don't have a chance at a Brexit of their choice.
All those who still insist the people have already spoken are doing nothing but risking the entire future of the United Kingdom, from Ireland to Scotland and Gibraltar, from Tory to Labour.
The man in the photo is Lord Kerr. He wrote the Article 50, never once thinking it was his own team that would invoke it. Lord Kerr, a former UK ambassador to the E.U; said Brexiteers in May’s cabinet were suggesting Brexit was irreversible and thereby misleading the public.
This former diplomat says the UK could opt to reverse Brexit up to the moment it leaves, even if a date for the country’s departure from European Union were added to the withdrawal bill, as Theresa May plans.
This is the only way to truly know what the people want and to unite the country again. Everybody, knowing the consequences, takes an informed decision. These are the options, this is the price! - DECIDE -.
Ask yourselves, do you really trust a politician, some of whom take donations from the Russians, to take what is almost certainly the most important decision of your and YOUR CHILDREN'S lives for you?
Tell your friends. Tell your family. Tell your fellow students. This sale is only on until March 29th, 2019. (Actually, if a transition period is negotiated it could be longer but I wouldn't risk it). Before Mar 29th 2019, even the EU can't stop a reversal. After that who knows) Vote the way you think and then its in the lap of the gods!