#FBPE Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth


I want to start this article off with a disclaimer. I am not unbiased, having been a remainer from the very beginning. That said, let's get on with it.


4 years ago a referendum was held in Scotland about them getting their independence. At the time the price of oil on the world markets was low, thereby putting their economic future in jeopardy. Additionally, as the UK was the member of the EU, withdrawing from the United Kingdom, by necessity, meant withdrawing from the European Union. The remainers (i.e. stay in the UK)won by a small margin.


Two years ago there was a referendum in the United Kingdom and the EU skeptics and Brexiteers won by a narrow margin. It should be noted that this result was almost exclusively in England. Scotland, Northern Ireland and Gibraltar all voted to remain. Therefore to claim it was the United Kingdom that voted is a misnomer at the very least. It's like me stating, Bill Gates and I are millionaires. Together maybe, but you get where I am coming from.


Then there's Northern Ireland. In 1998, as a result of both Ireland and the United Kingdom being members of the EU, an agreement was struck that ended years of dispute and troubles, and effectively quietened down hundreds of years of Irish resentment at occupation. The problem never went away, it was merely lulled into a state of slumber. Similarly, Gibraltar has only been British since the 16th century. They claim, and there is evidence of this, that during World War II Churchill promised at a lunch with the Duke of Alba, that after the war Britain would be willing to discuss returning Gibraltar to Spain. However, Churchill being plastered could not )or so he claims) remember making this offer. Nothing was in writing. Once again, the EU came to the rescue. It was unnecessary to make this decision now since both were part of the EU.


All those who claimed that Brexit was just a matter of negotiating and it would be easy have already been proven wrong. All those that predicted that the EU would fall apart were also wrong. There is much resentment and unrest. There are strong disputes, but nobody wants to leave the EU. Leave the Euro maybe, but not the EU.


For what it's worth, this is my prediction. After the first World War (named mistakenly the Great War), the League of Nations was born. Its format was wrong and consequently it never took off. But it didn't die, and after the second world war it was reborn as the United Nations, with similar underlying principles. It may well be that even this institution will need to be reborn as its current veto policy make it impossible to take certain crucial decisions, but a good idea never dies. It just stays on the shelf for a while until someone takes it off the shelf, dusts it off, maybe gives it a new paint job and puts it back in the shop window. I predict that the EU is also such an idea, and no matter what or how hard the UK tries it will never kill the idea.


It is this idea that the UK is fighting. At the end of the day, what Britain calls a negotiation is anything but ... It is more like someone withdrawing membership from a club but wanting some of the rights.


I am willing to bet that in the event of Brexit, that Scotland will have left the UK in under 10 years, and if as I predict the economic woes impact Northern Ireland, as indeed they will impact everyone including Wales, even they may choose to reunite with Ireland one day. Britain has chosen to face the great big world all alone. Somewhere in its psyche is the misconception that it still rules an empire. Let's not forget that the Queen had to plead with the heads of the Commonwealth to guarantee the position of head comes to her son when it is his turn to rule. This does not give her any more privileges than anyone else. Having a whole lot of Crown dependencies to do your dirty work or providing sanctuary for rich criminals is not a way to make money. The world is turning against such tactics, and even the economic giants in finance (the banks) are having to moderate their activities. Trump may have given them a breather, for now, but we all know it cannot last.


It is a fact that this government cannot deliver their version of Brexit. Truth be told, they cannot deliver any satisfactory version of Brexit. The Tories are split, and Labour is headed by another dreamer. In such circumstances nobody, but nobody can deliver anything. These days, an agreement such as that struck by May and Grieve on Thursday have a life expectancy of under 24 hours. Only the people can decide. You know I am right and one can deny it all one likes. The sooner they get it through their thick skulls the better.


As for the hardliners threatening May, here's my solution. Let her tell them, OK you don't want to support me, let's take it to the people and see what they say?


In the great oceans of the world there are the big beasts like whales, great white sharks and giant jellyfish and squids, the sardine survives as part of a shoal. I've never heard of a lone sardine making it alone. Have you?

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