#fbpe #abtv So they think its all over. - Well it's not, so think again!






Given the direction of movement of the polls recently, this election will not only not solve anything, it is also unlikely to last very long. The reason, absolutely nobody will have a mandate to do anything at all. Look at the prediction above. Sir John Curtice is a renowned and well-respected election pundit. In an interview to LBC radio, he warned Jeremy Corbyn that in all likelihood he will lose the next election, after all they are trailing in the polls by more than 10%.


But ...


If you think that Labour are the only ones with no real Brexit policy, think again. In these elections, the Brexit party is as damaging to the Tories, if not more so, than UKIP was in 2015. Note, that Boris Johnson these days does not blame the Brexit party in the least (he can't afford to piss them off), even if he has stated categorically that he will not stand in this election on a NO-DEAL policy. Even if you take the Conservatives and Brexit together, polls indicates that still they cannot get over the line to a majority. They only have 48% or so. In such a case, Johnson would not be able to form a new government even with negotiation. In the unlikely chance that they do get over the line, he will be very, very, very , very hard-pressed to whip his own party to support him in the event of any attempt at a hard Brexit. And so ladies and gentlemen ... we will be back in January with an even more divided parliament than we have now.

To this we can add another twist or two.


What is likely to happen when the candidates change? In all likelihood, the Tory returns will be more hard-line, in number at least, but by the same token, the labour return could well be more 'remain biased', better representing their nature. We have a couple of million new young voters thrown in the mix who are generally 'remainers', a number of older, Brexit voters who are no longer with us. So in conclusion people, my forecast is:


'A' if the Tories get at least 50% , but if the Brexit party reduce their seats then 'B' might happen, assuming that 'C' support Labour, in which case they will have a majority in parliament. Such an agreement will not be cheap for Corbyn, and will include in all probability, a second referendum. Corbyn's pledge of renegotiating the Brexit exit will almost certainly be watered down, not only by the other parties, but also by the EU. In the event that Brexit goes through, Corbyn's promise to the SNP for a second referendum means that almost certainly Scotland will break away. In the event of a Brexit, Rumour has it that even the business district of London will demand its independence.


Then again, just think what happens to the parliamentary Math if Sinn Fein decide to take their seats! June is a lovely month for a referendum, don't you think.!

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