#fbpe #abtv #libdem I hate to say .. I told you so... but I did. Can the UK survive a BREXIT future?
Updated: Sep 8, 2019
My blog was born over 3 years ago now, and with the exception of some erroneous details - I told you so. Check for yourselves if you want.
The first thing of consequence that I claimed was that the person who undertakes to resolve the Brexit problem, is doomed. I called it a poison chalice and that is exactly what it is. So far 3 Conservative prime ministers have drunk from the cup; 3 were arrogant enough to try to contain the beast, 3 thought they were smarter than their neighbors, 3 thought they could outsmart true democracy and 3 are now politically dead.
Now there are those that claim that a new general election will resolve the problem. It will not. However much oxygen the Brexit question may consume, there are always those that will vote on a different footing. There are those ideologically committed to the left or right. There are those still suffering from the effects of 10 years of austerity. There are those who may be swept up in the promises made during the election campaigns and there are always those that have material gain from voting one way or the other. There is only one way to resolve the Brexit problem and that is to put the question (properly this time) back to the people. If nothing else, the past 3 years have revealed many of its secrets about what the future holds in a 'no deal exit' and the fact that 'a better trade deal than the one we had' is an impossibility.
By "properly this time", I mean the following. A new, non-binary referendum. Any attempt to leave out any of the myriad of groups, is to guarantee that a resistance group will remain. This, of course, means that the result could end up being infinitely sectioned but that's OK, because this would only be round one. So, for example, we could have options like a no deal exit, revoke article 50, or continue negotiating for any other type of deal; be it Canada style, Norwegian, Swiss, Patagonian, Martian or any other. In the event that no option reaches 50% on the first round, the top two scoring options are then put to the electorate as a binary choice.
I forecast that the top scoring options will be 'revoke article 50', around 48% and NO DEAL exit', around 28%. In the second round (the Americans call it a run-off), all those dreamers that thought a better deal could be negotiated, will have to choose, and it is my firm belief that the final result would be around 65% revoke article 50, and 35% NO DEAL. This is the only way to resolve Brexit, once and for all.
Let me now deal with the predicted objections to my forecast. First, there are those that will claim a referendum must be binary. ** BEEP ** Wrong! Look it up, of the 8 dictionaries I consulted, 7 made no such restriction and these include the Oxford, Cambridge and McMillan. It merely defined a referendum as a question of action for the government for which they require popular advice.
Secondly, there are those that would claim this is anti-democratic, although I fail to see how the idea of asking the electorate can ever be anti-democratic. That aside ... there is no other course of action that will resolve the problem. Unless Corbyn wants to be the shortest lived PM in UK history, shorter even than Boris Johnson, he should not even try to negotiate a new deal or affect the result. His proposed Brexit (customs union with the EU) is an anathema, both to Brexiteers and Remainers alike. The best he can hope for is to grant a free vote for his supporters, and let nature take its course.
As things stand, unless it is made abundantly clear before the next election that a party will support a referendum whatever happens, that party will suffer. The next election could well end up with a hung parliament, and if the conservatives were to win again, there could well be a repeat of the problems in the future. Exactly the same would happen if Labour won The way round this is to force all candidates to declare up front what their position is on Brexit, negotiate, Exit or Remain. (Until death do us part)
This way Brexit is resolved and maybe, just maybe the Union will remain intact, because I would bet heavily that Scotland will eventually secede if they leave the EU, something even the most hardened of Scottish nationalists would reconsider if the choice is 'secede' and leave Europe. Furthermore, just as soon as the Irish troubles restart, and they will, even Westminster will have second thoughts about trying to prevent NI from having their own referendum on reunification with the Republic of Ireland. Spain would, once again go quiet on trying to get back Gibraltar ... and we would all live happily ever after - except for the hard line nationalistic (imperialistic) Brexiteers, who are getting fewer every year anyway thanks to Darwin's theory of natural selection.
So be smart people ... vote for a referendum and then vote as your heart sees fit. I know which way I'm voting.