Updated: Aug 19, 2018
This whole Brexit business is turning into the most ridiculous of debates. If we were to witness this in children, most probably, we as adults would be angry with both parties and tell them stop arguing and to behave.
In our Western democracies, the way it works is this. We have elections and the party with the most votes becomes the government of the day. They in turn have responsibilities and take daily decisions, and never in anybody's history has a decision been taken where absolutely everybody agrees. People complain, people strike, people petition.
Again, never in history has a government changed its mind the first time somebody complains. But sometimes, a subject is critically important; and sometimes resistance to a decision does not die down, but it grows.
Sometimes the decision is reversed, especially if the members of the party that voted for the decision are beginning to have second thoughts. Need an example? Just think about the Tory reversal on their austerity program. It grew and grew and now, to all extents and purposes, it has been dropped as a red line for the Conservatives.
Let's think about the Brexit decision in a slightly different way. You are driving along on a motorway and you come across a motorist driving towards you, that is he is driving in the wrong direction on the motorway. You can insist on your right of way and keep heading towards him or you can get out of the way.
In 2016 a democratic vote took place and by a small margin, those who voted to leave the EU, won the vote. We all know that claims of lies, underestimating the complexity of the subject and even vote rigging have taken place ... but for purposes of the discussion, let us assume that it was a fair and square decision. I agree, Brexiteers won.
But since that day, new information is appearing daily. We now know that the EU will not allow an exited Britain to operate in the way Britain wants. Walking out on something only works if you are totally, 100% independent, and there are many, many that doubt this is the case with Britain.
The numbers demanding a new vote are growing. The numbers who now want to remain in the EU are growing. The numbers that have changed their minds are growing. People who thought that Britain outside the EU would be better off are realizing that may not be the case; from the Welsh, the manufacturers, the financiers, the farmers, the young and even the fishermen; all are changing their minds.
Businesses are warning, and already proving their point by not investing. Our friends abroad, manufacturers which represent less than 20% of the economy are hogging the conversation; because we have had absolutely no discussion on services. The truth is that the government is counting on the fact that Britain is so big the EU doesn't dare to ... not give an agreement. REALLY?
America, the largest economy in the world and also the most powerful military force, occasionally backs down. Nobody, but nobody can fight the whole world! What does Britain have that is so wonderful that people will flood to do business with us, in our own way?
Economies as large as China, India and even the USA negotiate with the EU, and eventually a deal is made. They took years to negotiate and in the end, nobody got everything they wants. The EU now has over 60 of these world-wide. Under Brexit all this will be lost to Britain.
But worst of all, it has now become obvious that neither government nor parliament, nor even the courts can come up with a solution that will be acceptable to both sides. Both sides in this debate have now become so entrenched in their views that nobody is listening anymore. The idea of sending our ministers and envoys round the EU to tell them they are making a big mistake and will regret it; is undoubtedly one of the most ridiculous, the most demeaning events in British history. If nothing else, nobody likes to be threatened, not the British and certainly not the EU.
At this point, all those who still doubt that the matter needs to be returned to the people, are frankly beneath contempt. What is scaring people so much that they cannot accept a final vote on exit by the people?
Whatever happens in 2019, I am willing to bet heavily on Britain under Brexit, slowly (perhaps even rapidly) going downhill,and perhaps even breaking apart. If you cannot imagine another Scottish vote electing to leave the EU, you have no imagination. If you cannot see a Northern Ireland suffering so much economically under Brexit that they vote to reunite, you have no imagination; and if you think that the days of keeping them inside the union by military force, you are seriously delusional.